Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
